Energy Basics
Supply: The financial crisis has pushed the issue of peak oil and global supply out of the limelight, while we believe the underlying issues remain unchanged.
Demand: Oil is trading well below its inflation-adjusted peak of around US$105/bbl from the 1970s. The current oil markets, however, are dramatically different from 30 years ago - there is much less spare capacity and increasing decline rates. China: We believe the emerging economies, particularly China, will be a key future driver of incremental energy demand. China, already the second largest oil consumer in the world, is still moving from its current low consumption level of around 3 barrels per person per year to western levels of around 20 barrels per person per year.
